Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food prices: Evidence from storable and perishable commodities in India.

The supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak have led to changes in food prices globally. The impact of COVID-19 on the price of essential and perishable food items in developing and emerging economies has been lacking. Using a recent phone survey by the World Bank, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of the three essential food items in India. The results indicate that price of basic food items such as atta (wheat flour) and rice increased significantly during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. In contrast, during the same period, the price of onions declined significantly. The findings may suggest panic-buying, hoarding, and storability of food items. The results further reveal that remittance income and cash transfers from the government negatively affected commodity prices. Thus, this study's findings suggest that families may have shifted the demand away from essential foods during the pandemic.

Evaluation of Statewide Restrictions on Flavored e-Cigarette Sales in the US From 2014 to 2020.

Importance: e-Cigarettes are the most commonly used tobacco product among US youths. Flavors are among the most cited reasons for use of e-cigarettes among youths, and therefore, some states have imposed restrictions on flavored e-cigarette sales. To our knowledge, no study has compared e-cigarette sales between states with statewide flavored e-cigarette restrictions and states without such restrictions while controlling for co-occurring events. Objective: To assess whether implementation of statewide restrictions on flavored e-cigarette sales in Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Washington was associated with a reduction in total e-cigarette unit sales from 2014 to 2020. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study with difference-in-differences analysis used e-cigarette retail sales data from Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Washington, which implemented restrictions on flavored e-cigarette sales in October 2019; New York, which implemented these restrictions in May 2020; and 35 states without these restrictions (control states). Sales were summed into 4-week periods from August 24, 2014, to December 27, 2020, for a total of 2988 state-period observations. Main Outcomes and Measures: A difference-in-differences analysis was conducted to compare e-cigarette unit sales in the 4 states with flavor restrictions (before and after implementation) with those in the 35 control states. The model controlled for other population-based policies and emergent events (eg, the COVID-19 pandemic). Data on 4-week e-cigarette unit sales were sorted into 4 flavor categories (tobacco, menthol, mint, and other). Unit sales were standardized to reflect the most common package sizes for each product type. Results: Statewide restrictions on non-tobacco-flavored e-cigarette sales were associated with the following reductions in mean 4-week total e-cigarette sales in intervention states compared with control states from October 2019 to December 2020: 30.65% (95% CI, 24.08%-36.66%) in New York, 31.26% (95% CI, 11.94%-46.34%) in Rhode Island, and 25.01% (95% CI, 18.43%-31.05%) in Washington. In Massachusetts, the comprehensive sales prohibition of all e-cigarette products was associated with a 94.38% (95% CI, 93.37%-95.23%) reduction in 4-week sales compared with control states. Except in Massachusetts, where all sales of flavored e-cigarettes decreased, reductions were found only for non-tobacco-flavored e-cigarette sales in the other states with restrictions. Among control states, mean sales decreased by 28.4% from August 2019 to February 2020 but then increased by 49.9% from February through December 2020. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, statewide restrictions on the sale of flavored e-cigarettes in Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Washington were associated with a reduction in total e-cigarette sales. These findings suggest that not all e-cigarette users who purchased non-tobacco-flavored e-cigarettes switched to purchasing tobacco-flavored e-cigarettes after policy implementation.

Human mobility data and machine learning reveal geographic differences in alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits across U.S. states during COVID-19.

As many U.S. states implemented stay-at-home orders beginning in March 2020, anecdotes reported a surge in alcohol sales, raising concerns about increased alcohol use and associated ills. The surveillance report from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism provides monthly U.S. alcohol sales data from a subset of states, allowing an investigation of this potential increase in alcohol use. Meanwhile, anonymized human mobility data released by companies such as SafeGraph enables an examination of the visiting behavior of people to various alcohol outlets such as bars and liquor stores. This study examines changes to alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits during COVID-19 and their geographic differences across states. We find major increases in the sales of spirits and wine since March 2020, while the sales of beer decreased. We also find moderate increases in people's visits to liquor stores, while their visits to bars and pubs substantially decreased. Noticing a significant correlation between alcohol sales and outlet visits, we use machine learning models to examine their relationship and find evidence in some states for likely panic buying of spirits and wine. Large geographic differences exist across states, with both major increases and decreases in alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits.

Business disruptions from social distancing.

Social distancing interventions can be effective against epidemics but are potentially detrimental for the economy. Businesses that rely heavily on face-to-face communication or close physical proximity when producing a product or providing a service are particularly vulnerable. There is, however, no systematic evidence about the role of human interactions across different lines of business and about which will be the most limited by social distancing. Here we provide theory-based measures of the reliance of U.S. businesses on human interaction, detailed by industry and geographic location. We find that, before the pandemic hit, 43 million workers worked in occupations that rely heavily on face-to-face communication or require close physical proximity to other workers. Many of these workers lost their jobs since. Consistently with our model, employment losses have been largest in sectors that rely heavily on customer contact and where these contacts dropped the most: retail, hotels and restaurants, arts and entertainment and schools. Our results can help quantify the economic costs of social distancing.

How a sample of English stop smoking services and vape shops adapted during the early COVID-19 pandemic: a mixed-methods cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic in England led to major changes in the delivery of support via stop smoking services (SSS) and to the widespread temporary closure of bricks and mortar e-cigarette retailers (vape shops herein). The impact of disruptions across the smoking cessation support landscape has not been fully documented. The purpose of this study was to capture how SSS and vape shops in England were affected and adapted their 'business as usual' during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: An online cross-sectional survey was conducted between March and July 2020. Surveys were disseminated through online networks, professional forums and contacts. Open-ended qualitative responses were coded using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Responses from 46 SSS and 59 vape shops were included. SSS were able to adapt during this period, e.g. offering a remote service. A high percentage (74.6%) of vape shops had to close and were unable to make changes; 71.2% reported business declining. For both vape shops and SSS qualitative data revealed practical challenges to adapting, but also new pathways to support and co-working. CONCLUSION: The closure of vape shops appears to have most impacted smaller bricks and mortar shops affecting businesses by decline in customers and impacting staff (furlough). For those services that could stay open there may be lessons learned in how to support vulnerable and disadvantaged people who smoke by considering new pathways to support.

Patterns of prescription dispensation and over-the-counter medication sales in Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: On February 26th 2020, a high alert was issued in Sweden in response to the diagnosis of the first few coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the country. Subsequently, a decreased supply of essential goods, including medical products, was anticipated. We aimed to explore the weekly patterns of prescription dispensing and over-the-counter (OTC) medication sales in Sweden in 2020 compared with previous years, to assess the influence of the government restrictions on medication sales, and to assess whether there is evidence of medication stockpiling in the population. METHODS: Aggregated data on the weekly volume of defined daily doses (DDDs) of prescription medication dispensed and OTC sales from 2015 to 2020 were examined. From 2015-2019 data, the predicted weekly volume of DDDs for 2020 was estimated and compared to the observed volume for each ATC anatomical main group and therapeutic subgroup. RESULTS: From mid-February to mid-March 2020, there were increases in the weekly volumes of dispensed medication, peaking in the second week of March with a 46% increase in the observed versus predicted number of DDDs dispensed (16,440 vs 11,260 DDDs per 1000 inhabitants). A similar pattern was found in all age groups, in both sexes, and across metropolitan and non-metropolitan regions. In the same week in March, there was a 96% increase in the volume of OTC sold (2,504 vs 1,277 DDDs per 1000 inhabitants), specifically in ATC therapeutic subgroups including vitamins, antipyretics, painkillers, and nasal, throat, cough and cold preparations. CONCLUSION: Beginning in mid-February 2020, there were significant changes in the volume of prescription medication dispensed and OTC drugs sold. The weekly volume of DDDs quickly decreased following recommendations from public authorities. Overall, our findings suggest stockpiling behavior over a surge in new users of medication.

Sales of antibiotics and hydroxychloroquine in India during the COVID-19 epidemic: An interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in India on the consumption of antibiotics and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in the private sector in 2020 compared to the expected level of use had the epidemic not occurred. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed interrupted time series (ITS) analyses of sales volumes reported in standard units (i.e., doses), collected at regular monthly intervals from January 2018 to December 2020 and obtained from IQVIA, India. As children are less prone to develop symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, we hypothesized a predominant increase in non-child-appropriate formulation (non-CAF) sales. COVID-19-attributable changes in the level and trend of monthly sales of total antibiotics, azithromycin, and HCQ were estimated, accounting for seasonality and lockdown period where appropriate. A total of 16,290 million doses of antibiotics were sold in India in 2020, which is slightly less than the amount in 2018 and 2019. However, the proportion of non-CAF antibiotics increased from 72.5% (95% CI: 71.8% to 73.1%) in 2019 to 76.8% (95% CI: 76.2% to 77.5%) in 2020. Our ITS analyses estimated that COVID-19 likely contributed to 216.4 million (95% CI: 68.0 to 364.8 million; P = 0.008) excess doses of non-CAF antibiotics and 38.0 million (95% CI: 26.4 to 49.2 million; P < 0.001) excess doses of non-CAF azithromycin (equivalent to a minimum of 6.2 million azithromycin treatment courses) between June and September 2020, i.e., until the peak of the first epidemic wave, after which a negative change in trend was identified. In March 2020, we estimated a COVID-19-attributable change in level of +11.1 million doses (95% CI: 9.2 to 13.0 million; P < 0.001) for HCQ sales, whereas a weak negative change in monthly trend was found for this drug. Study limitations include the lack of coverage of the public healthcare sector, the inability to distinguish antibiotic and HCQ sales in inpatient versus outpatient care, and the suboptimal number of pre- and post-epidemic data points, which could have prevented an accurate adjustment for seasonal trends despite the robustness of our statistical approaches. CONCLUSIONS: A significant increase in non-CAF antibiotic sales, and particularly azithromycin, occurred during the peak phase of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in India, indicating the need for urgent antibiotic stewardship measures.

Drug Shop Intervention to Enhance Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices of Patent Medicine Vendors for the Control of COVID-19 In Southeastern Nigeria.

Drug shops are the first point of care for most community members in low-resource countries. Because of symptomatic similarities with common illnesses such as malaria, probable coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases may seek care at drug shops, where the knowledge and skills required to handle it may be lacking, thereby fostering community spread of the disease. This single-arm study provided an intervention to improve COVID-19-related knowledge, attitude, and practices of patent medicine vendors (PMVs) in 97 participating drug shops selected through cluster sampling in Owerri, southeastern Nigeria. The intervention involved a drug shop sensitization using information, education, and communication material, as well as training on the use of a risk assessment checklist to identify probable COVID-19 cases and to take appropriate action. Data were collected to determine the effect of this intervention using a pre-tested questionnaire and practice observation checklist, first at baseline and then 3 months post-intervention. Data analysis involved exploratory analysis and the t-test to determine pre- and post-intervention mean score differences at the 5% α level. There was post-intervention knowledge improvement on the COVID-19 causative pathogen (98.1% post-intervention versus 61.9% pre-intervention) and disease transmissibility from person to person (95.9% post-intervention versus 81.4% pre-intervention) among other knowledge domains. There was significant post-intervention improvement for positive attitude, with a mean gain score of 2.8 ± 1.7 (t = 4.4, P = 0.005), and preventive practices, with a mean gain score of 6.0 ± 4.7 (t = 4.1, P = 0.007). Engaging patent medicine vendors in the pandemic response plans through targeted interventions such as drug shop intervention could prove vital in the fight against COVID-19.

Impact of minimum unit pricing on alcohol purchases in Scotland and Wales: controlled interrupted time series analyses.

BACKGROUND: As a policy option to reduce consumption of alcohol and the harm it does, on May 1, 2018, Scotland introduced a minimum price of 50 British pence (p) per unit of alcohol (8 g) sold; Wales followed suit on March 2, 2020, with the same minimum unit price (MUP). We analysed household purchase data based on bar codes to assess the impact of these policy options in the medium term for Scotland and in the immediate term for Wales. METHODS: For these location-controlled, interrupted time series regression analyses, the data source was Kantar WorldPanel's household shopping panel, which, at the time of our analysis, included 35 242 British households providing detailed information on 1·24 million separate alcohol purchases in 2015-18 and the first half of 2020. With no data exclusions, we analysed the impact of introducing MUP in Scotland, using purchases in northern England as control, and in Wales, using western England as control. The studied changes associated with MUP were price paid per gram of alcohol purchased, grams of alcohol purchased, and amount of money spent on alcohol. FINDINGS: In Scotland, price increases and purchase decreases following the introduction of MUP in 2018 were maintained during the first half of 2020. The difference between Scotland and northern England in 2020 was a price increase of 0·741 p per gram (95% CI 0·724-0·759), a 7·6% increase, and a purchase decrease of 7·063 g per adult per household per day that an alcohol purchase was made (6·656-7·470), a 7·7% decrease. In Wales, the introduction of MUP led to similar results. The difference between Wales and western England was a price increase 0·841 of 0·841 p per gram (0·732-0·951), an 8·2% increase, and a purchase decrease of 7·052 g per adult per household per day that an alcohol purchase was made (6·463-7·640), an 8·6% decrease. For both Scotland and Wales, reductions in overall purchases of alcohol were largely restricted to households that bought the most alcohol. The introduction of MUP was not associated with an increased expenditure on alcohol by households that generally bought small amounts of alcohol and, in particular, those with low incomes. The changes were not affected by the introduction of COVID-19 confinement in the UK on March 26, 2020. INTERPRETATION: The evidence base supporting the positive, targeted impact of MUP is strengthened by the comparable results for Scotland and Wales. The short-term impact of MUP in Scotland during 2018 is maintained during the first half of 2020. MUP is an effective alcohol policy option to reduce off-trade purchases of alcohol and should be widely considered. FUNDING: None.

Multi-stakeholder perspective of courier service quality in B2C e-commerce.

Under conditions of the rapidly developing e-commerce sector especially during pandemic, ensuring high quality of courier service is essential both for clients, as well as courier companies. However, the literature lacks research linking the perspective of clients and organization in the context of courier service quality. The study aims to identify the factors determining courier service quality, their functions and interrelationships in business-to-customer (B2C) e-commerce. The main effect of research is the relational model, which is an original and complex approach to courier service quality considering the multi-stakeholder perspective of an online shop, a courier company and an e-customer. Apart from scientific contribution, the model can be used into managerial practice to formulate the recommendations for e-commerce and courier service sector. The research process involved using the quantitative method (electronic surveys conducted among e-shops and e-clients) and the qualitative method (in-depth-interviews carried out among courier enterprises). Finally, based on the empirical research results, the structural analysis was used to develop the model. As a result, the following groups of factors were distinguished that determine the quality of courier services: crucial, determinant, result, autonomous and external factors.

Circumvention of COVID-19-related restrictions on tobacco sales by the e-cigarette industry in South Africa and comparative analyses of heated tobacco product vs combustible cigarette volume sales during 2018-2020.

As a public health measure against COVID-19, South Africa restricted the sale of "tobacco, e-cigarettes and related products" for 5 months, ending on August 17, 2020. We examined marketing activities related to novel tobacco products (e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products) during this restriction. Using web scraping, we accessed data for 2661 e-cigarette liquids marketed online by South African vendors in June 2020. We also analyzed heated tobacco product volume sales (kits) using retail scanner data from Nielsen Company. The 2661 e-cigarette liquids assessed online comprised cannabidiol liquids, 28.8%[767/2661], nicotine salts, 10.4%[276/2661], e-cigarette juice concentrates, 14.1%[376/2661], nicotine-free e-liquid, 4.0%[107/2661], and nicotine-containing e-liquid, 42.6%[1135/2661]. Cannabidiol liquids had the highest percentage of fruit (78.4%[601/767]) and tobacco flavors (9.4%[72/767]). During the restriction, many online e-cigarette vendors actively promoted cannabidiol liquid in lieu of regular e-liquid. Nielsen retail scanner data showed that volume of heated tobacco product sales in February 2020, preceding the restriction (7.76 million kits), were higher than in February 2019 (4.52 million kits). The restriction saw decreased sales of heated tobacco products; mean weekly heated tobacco product sales in the 6 weeks following the restriction (772,585 kits/week) were dramatically lower versus the 6 weeks preceding the restriction (2.26 million kits/week). Lifting the restriction saw a 131% spike in sales between the latter half of August 2020 (825,638 kits) and mid-September 2020 sales (1.90 million kits), even though total sales in September 2020 were half of what was observed in the preceding year (3.81 million units in September 2020, vs 6.33 million units, September 2019). The marketing of cannabidiol and other novel products by e-cigarette manufacturers and the tobacco industry may encourage youth use; close monitoring is required.

Behavioral changes before lockdown and decreased retail and recreation mobility during lockdown contributed most to controlling COVID-19 in Western countries.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a lockdown in many countries to control the exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, hereby reducing the time-varying basic reproduction number (Rt) to below one. Governments are looking for evidence to balance the demand of their citizens to ease some of the restriction, against the fear of a new peak in infections. In this study, we wanted to quantify the relative contribution of mobility restrictions, and that of behavioral changes that occurred already before the lockdowns, on the reduction of transmission during lockdowns in Western countries in early 2020. METHODS: Incidence data of cases and deaths from the first wave of infections for 35 Western countries (32 European, plus Israel, USA and Canada) were analyzed using epidemiological compartment models in a Bayesian framework. Mobility data was used to estimate the timing of changes associated with a lockdown, and was correlated with estimated reductions of Rt. RESULTS: Across all countries, the initial median estimate for Rt was 3.6 (95% IQR 2.4-5.2), and it was reduced to 0.78 (95% IQR 0.58-1.01) during lockdown. 48% (18-65%) of the reduction occurred already in the week before lockdown, with lockdown itself causing the remaining drop in transmission. A lower Rt during lockdown was independently associated with an increased time spent at home (0.21 per 10% more time, p < 0.007), and decreased mobility related to retail and recreation (0.07 per 10% less mobility, p < 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: In a Western population unaware of the risk, SARS-CoV-2 can be highly contagious with a reproduction number R0 > 5. Our results are consistent with evidence that recreational activities (including restaurant and bar visits) enable super-spreading events. Exiting from lockdown therefore requires continued physical distancing and tight control on this kind of activities.

Effects of Pandemic Outbreak on Economies: Evidence From Business History Context.

The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the capitalist dysfunction showing that considering profit over people can be deadly. The study reveals the LME economies were more responsive toward the impact of the disease outbreaks as compared to the CME economies wherein the impact of the disease was moderated by the government involvement. This allows us to draw that the impact of the disease outbreaks can be moderated by increasing the involvement of the government authorities.

Economic Policy Uncertainty in China and Bitcoin Returns: Evidence From the COVID-19 Period.

This paper analyses the effects of the Chinese Economic Policy Uncertainty (CEPU) index on the daily returns of Bitcoin for the period from December 31, 2019 to May 20, 2020. Utilizing the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Generalized Quantile Regression (GQR) estimation techniques, the paper illustrates that the current CEPU has a positive impact on the returns of Bitcoin. However, the positive impact is statistically significant only at the higher quantiles of the current CEPU. It is concluded that Bitcoin can be used in hedging against policy uncertainties in China since significant rises in uncertainty leads to a higher return in Bitcoin. JEL Codes: G32; G15; C22.